Episode 5: Golden Geese

In his famous Davos speech in January, Mark Carney recognized the rupture in the global order, and the challenges it presents. He argued that middle power democracies like Canada must band together. This concept aligns perfectly with the concept of nation-building projects that create jobs and revenue.  After all, our allies will need natural resources. But the path to success will not be straightforward….

Transcript

5 Golden Geese

Canada needs wealth. Successful countries all need significant wealth.

By wealth I mean thriving industries, good jobs, and money to pay for the things that Canadians want and deserve. These essential needs include national security, jobs, and a stable economy. But it cannot stop there. Canadians also need to end poverty and inequality, fight climate change, and much, much, more. 

Good government is very expensive. None of these things are cheap, and none are trivial. We already have a significant national debt. Canada needs wealth.

Every wealthy country has a goose that can lay golden eggs. That is, a healthy, balanced economy with at least one industry that can create reliable jobs and good incomes: a golden goose.    

In Canada, over the past centuries, different industries have driven the economy.  Lumber, farming, and fishing gave way to technology, the auto sector, and the oil industry. Canada has done well.  

In recent decades, the oil industry was the golden goose, the one sector that pumped money. But that goose is dying. The oil age is coming to an end.  Wildfires, droughts, and floods are God’s way of telling us to listen to science, and go green. 

A few decades back, Ontario boasted the auto sector. It too is fading. The auto industry today employes around 140,000 people, basically the same as 50 years ago. Since Canada’s population is 80% higher, it is a big drop in relative terms.  More important, those were union jobs in 1973. Now, only a quarter of the Canadian auto workers are in unions.  

The Canadian oil and auto industries are fading, just as so many industries have in the past.

Canada therefore needs new options, new golden geese.  The Carney government understands this. That was the point of th push for big nation-building projects. Those projects are mostly designed to attract investment in mining, which the government identifies, I believe correctly, as Canada’s next golden goose.  If some of the projects succeed, that will be good for Canada.   

Of course, some of the projects already seem doomed. New pipelines will never see the light of day. They do not make economic sense, regardless of what Premier Smith may say. Happily, Alberta has better, greener options.

Meanwhile, there is every reason to believe that the mining industry generally can be a massive success if it can get over some hurdles. Some of the hurdles are specific to the mineral, or to the location of the mines. Some are more general.

Mining produces a smorgasbord of about sixty different products, from gold to potash to sand and rare earth minerals. It include metals, non-metals, and critical minerals. Every one of these is different. Investment is a challenge. Mines are long term investments, and it is very hard to predict long term prices for any particular substance. How knew that gold would double in price in the past year alone? 

So, mining can in theory make Canada extremely rich, but it is not guaranteed. The challenge is to create the conditions that will attract investors. But for Canada to do this, we will need to do things very differently, very fast, and very green. 

Now, with apologies, this episode does deal with issues covered in previous podcasts. But things are moving. An update is in order.  But first, here’s a summary of what we know.

Canada has the second largest mineral reserves of any country on earth. This includes massive amounts of basic metals, plus cobalt, thorium, titanium, lithium, antimony, rare earth metals, ingredients needed for high-tech industries. Yet Canada ranks only 5th or 6th as a mining nation, well below potential. 

Investment in Canadian mines in 2023 is estimated to have been about $16 billion. Global mining investments totaled $110 billion. In an industry valued at over $2 trillion, Canada needs to catch up. 

One reason is geopolitical. Minerals are strategic resources in a modern economy. Democracies need reliable supplies of resources to preserve their national security and sovereignty. That was the message to the world from Mark Carney, in his Davos speech, with Donald Trump providing the reason why.

Provincial politicians are less concerned with geopolitics: they simply want mining revenue. But no two provinces are alike. They all have different mineral deposits, which face different challenges in getting ore processed and brought to market. 

Provinces get income from royalties, and from corporate and personal taxes. Most provinces base the royalties on profit, but each province does it differently. The numbers are hard to pin down, but it amounts to less than we might imagine. 

British Columbia and Quebec bring in hundreds of millions of dollars from royalties, not billions. Most provinces, like Ontario, bring in far less. The exception is Saskatchewan, with potash royalties of about $1.5 billion a year, and another $1 billion in taxes.  These figures are all from before the Trump trade war. 

There are about sixty different mining marketplaces for different products. Mining is a tough business…. Or, more accurately, many tough businesses. The major players are multi-billion dollar corporations with very deep pockets. The small companies, the so-called juniors, have no margin for error. 

So, where is Canada strongest?

Gold is one of the bright spots. Canada is ranked 8th in terms of gold reserves, and 4th in terms of production. Gold has doubled in price in the past year, because of economic uncertainty.  Saskatchewan potash and Quebec Aluminum are world leaders.  There are major deposits of base metals like iron, of silver, and other metals. There are also many deposits with huge potential. 

Saskatchewan recently found a massive deposit of alumina.  Close to rail and energy infrastructure and its position in North America, it is believed that this project could supply the continent’s aluminum for hundreds of years. The project would be one of the least environmentally damaging sources of aluminum in the world.

Alberta may be on the cusp of a different industry. Millions of tonnes of lithium exist in brine alongside oil and gas wells. A new technology to extract the lithium in a relatively clean manner is being tested. Old gas wells could be re-purposed.

In any of these potential mining venture, there is a common theme.  The mid-level democracies that the Prime Minister spoke about at Davos will want resources like metals from partners they can trust. They will avoid dirty minerals mined with slave-like labour, and where a revolution is always on the horizon. 

China grasped the importance of supply lines long ago. For years China has invested in ports, roads and railways around the world. Local environmental damage is not concern to them. They look for locations where climate and terrain and distances are less of an issue. The Chinese “New Silk Road” has a stranglehold on the supply chain for between 20% and 80% of all global minerals.  

This Chinese monopoly is a strategic security risk. The American threat is another strategic security risk. This will incline Europe and other trade partners to consider Canadian metals and minerals. 

Will investors suddenly flock to Canada?  Not if they face the risk of political opposition and high costs. These are industry killers. But they can be solved.

Consider, first, the environmental dilemma. Mining is not, and never will be, perfectly green.  Canada may aspire to be a leader in sustainable and clean mining, but trust must be earned. 

Canada has accidents in recent years. The Eagle gold mine (Yukon) had a large cyanide spill that caused horrible environmental damage. The Mount Polley (B.C.) copper and gold mine released eight million cubic meters of tailings, locally catastrophic.  The Teck coal mines in the Elk Valley (B.C.) releasedselenium, which damaged ecosystems, leaving a cleanup cost that could reach $6.4 billion.

Concern over accidents like these are impacting British Columbia’s Golden Triangle, which has an estimated trillion dollars in minerals, largely gold.  It is also a concern with Ontario’s Ring of Fire, which has upwards of $90 billion in chromite, nickel, copper, platinum, gold and zinc.  

To some, the solution is to find greener ways to mine. To Premier Doug Ford, the solution is to fast-track the Ring of Fire project, by-passing pesky environmental regulations and Indigenous rights. But that fails the sniff test.

The dilemma for Mark Carney is that for the mining industry to flourish in Canada, and become a golden goose, it must demonstrate that it can and will address every reasonable ecological concern. Do this, and negotiations will have a chance. 

Environmental damage is caused in two ways: by the mining, and by the transportation to and from a mine.  Environmental risks can be reduced with cutting edge technology.  For example, the gold mining giant Barrick has used thiosulfate instead of cyanide to dissolve gold from ore for over a decade.

One absolute need for mining is energy. It must be greener.  Fossil fuel is not a long term option. The challenge is to produce green energy, and to transport it to isolated mines and remote communities. 

The obvious solution is hydrogen. Carbon-free energy can be used to create hydrogen, which can be shipped if liquified or compressed. Or it can be combined with nitrogen to make ammonia, an industrial fuel. Converted to electricity, an entire mine could then run with robotic equipment. 

Hydrogen can be produced in the south. In June, Nova Scotia pitched a project to the Prime Minister called Wind West. Using offshore wind turbines, the project could generate enough electricity to meet 27% of Canada's needs. Canada’s potential for wind and solar power is tremendous, and this energy is affordable.  

A second source of hydrogen is gold, or natural, hydrogen. The gas exists in pockets underground, much like oil and gas. The search is now well underway, and this technology is moving quickly.

The Lawson Project in Saskatchewan began drilling for hydrogen in late 2025.  The company, MAX power, confirmed this January that natural hydrogen was found, along with helium.   It is too early to say how much hydrogen is in reserves such as this in Canada. Southern Ontario also has the ideal geological conditions for gold hydrogen, and early tests are underway there as well. 

In Canada, oil and gas workers already have the know-how to tap this hydrogen. This technology could move very quickly.

The third energy option for mines is micro-nuclear power. There are a number of these projects underway. Generating as little as one megawatt, and small enough to fit on a flatbed truck, these would be ideal for mines and villages. 

The American military is currently testing three models. Westinghouse is working on a five megawatt micro reactor, the eVinci. The problem is that these reactors, like a Stanley Cup for Toronto, always seem to be just around the corner. 

However, it is safe to assume green hydrogen can be created in volume. For the mines to be greenish, they must be automated, using robots to cut labour costs and increase productivity. In hostile environments, robots do better than humans.  

The global market for mining robotics is now about $1.5 billion. This is expected to double over the next decade.  Japanese companies make over 45% of the world's industrial robots, with Komatsu and Hitachi the leaders in autonomous mining technology.  Problem solved.

Electric robotic equipment is already a reality in Canada. In Ontario, the Goldcorp mining company will use all-electric machines instead of diesel at a mine in Borden Lake. This will eliminate 7,000 tons of CO2 a year.   

The other half of the environmental problem is transportation. Transportation in a land as large as Canada is a massive dilemma. Miners must get equipment in and out, get ore to a smelter, deal with toxic waste… a variety of messy tasks that is different for every mine. 

In an earlier podcast I discussed the Baffin Island iron mine.  It is a project with fabulous ore quality, but looks like an accident waiting to happen. So, too, does the Grays Bay roads and port project in the Northwest Territories and Nunavut. And, similarly, the expansion of the Port of Churchill, Manitoba, has both benefits and risks. Transportation through fragile northern land and sea ecosystems is always hazardous. This does not mean the projects will not happen, especially when they have Indigenous support.  But they are not risk free.

Regardless of whether transportation projects such as these go ahead, there is a long-shot transportation solution for many communities and more remote mines: airships. 

A new generation of heavy-lift airships is just starting to enter the marketplace. Over a dozen serious projects are underway. In large numbers, they could replace much of the long distance cargo outside crowded urban centers.  

Most airships mostly use helium as the lifting gas. The Flying Whales airships, a French design that will carry up to 60 tonnes, intends to build a factory near Sherbrooke in Québec in 2027, and then start production. The British Airlander 10 is on track to carry up to 130 passengers. Both could serve northern mines and communities.

The first airship planning to use hydrogen as the lifting gas is the H2 Clipper. It will carry up to 150 tonnes of cargo for thousands of kilometers with a cruising speed of 175 km/h.  The company plan is to transport liquified hydrogen to remote locations.  Production in California is expected to start in 2029.

However, sadly, it may take decades before we see widespread use of airships.  It is an opportunity for a major industry that Canada seems determined to resist.

The broader point is, most of the technology for green mining already exists, and can address the concerns of most environmentalists. Green mining can become the golden goose that Canada’s economy needs. 

This said, there remains one huge obstacle to corporate investment in mining: the rights to the resources are tied in a Gordian knot of treaties, rights, and constitutional contradictions. The Indigenous have treaty rights, provinces claim crown land rights, and Ottawa has the money. Every level of government adds a tangle to the knot that is holding down the golden goose of mining. 

From an investor perspective, it would be easier if all the royalties, taxes, regulations and approvals were the same across Canada. That is, one window service. This could help unlock the potential for corporate profit, good jobs, and national wealth. 

To cut the existing red tape, Prime Minister Carney made fast-tracking of major projects a top priority. Ontario likewise passed fast-track legislation. The flaw in both these initiatives is that the fastest route to Indigenous support is not a straight line. A detour through respectful consultation is essential.

Premier Ford famously whined that the Indigenous “keep coming hat in hand” for more money. His tone illustrated the depth of the cultural divide. By treating the First Nations as an afterthought, his legislation is destined to head straight to the courts where litigation can take years. 

This said, most Indigenous would welcome green mining if it brought prosperity. With robotic equipment, clean electricity, and hydrogen airships, the opposition would evaporate. The transportation and energy needs of every northern village and mine could also be met. 

The one final condition to green mining and prosperity is the question of trust. Canada does not have a history of fair treatment for the First Nations on whose land the mines are found. This has evolved in recent years, with many leading political figures doing their utmost to untangle the Gordian knot of Indigenous politics. Nobody has succeeded. 

A number of Canadian leaders have treated the Indigenous with respect, and have consulted extensively. Ottawa generally has learned this, though Mr. Carney may have nodded off during parts of that class. Mr. Ford missed the entire semester. But, as the saying goes, there is never a wrong time to do the right thing. 

So, what’s ahead? A number of big projects will likely get up and running. Others are likely to get delayed because the fast-track has a speed bump.  That is, projects that require Indigenous approval, and where consultation was not included from the start, will get bogged down in the courts.

The path to more mining in the north runs through Indigenous villages and communities. It is slow. But the direct path, the fast-tracking, runs through a legal quagmire that is even slower: the constitution. 

There is a third path, a different approach, that could be built for more frequent, long term investment approvals. It is close to heresy. That path is to re-negotiate parts of the constitution to fit the needs of the 21st century.

Nobody today will talk about the Constitution.  Responsible leaders see Alberta and Quebec separatism back the agenda.  They fear of Canada breaking up, and becoming susceptible to American ambition, is too great. The idea of constitutional change is therefore taboo. 

True, in a move that is close to treason, despicable Alberta conservatives have conspired with the Trump team to promote a referendum. Yes, Quebec is currently drafting their dream constitution. But both situations are the political equivalent of a child’s tantrum. They loudly dominate the conversation at a family gathering, making it impossible to have a reasonable discussion of a serious matter. 

The children need a time out. The adults need that serious discussion over the future of the nation. 

Can constitutional renovation bring good government into the 21st century?

Can Indigenous restitution stimulate investments in green mining. 

If Quebec holds another referendum, what conditions would Canada impose?

Can the modernization of the constitution bring a new and different unity to Canada?  

 Let's talk. 

---

You have been listening to Canada Re-imagined, season three: After the Cataclysm

In my next podcast I will explore some radical solutions to national unity.

I’m Patrick Esmonde-White, totally responsible for this podcast. My theme music is by Tom Plant. My thanks to the Harbinger Media Network for their support. If you enjoyed this, please spread the word. Tune in again.